Marine habitat suitability predictions (monthly and decadal)
Within the MARCO-BOLO project, we aim to model habitat suitability for coastal and marine species protected under the EU Birds and Habitats Directives. The European Union’s Habitats and Birds Directives (Council directive 92/43/EEC; Directive 2009/147/EC) serve as essential frameworks protecting habitats and their species. To support effective management under these directives, it is necessary to understand both the current distribution of these species and how their habitats may shift in the future under climate change scenarios.
The aim of these models is to understand the current distribution of these species in European waters and to predict how this may change under future climate scenarios.
The species included are:
- Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena)
- Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina)
- Common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus)
- Common dolphin (Delphinus delphis)
The model output takes the form of maps of habitat suitability in OSPAR regions II, III and IV, showing the relative probability of occurrence for each species based on environmental conditions.
To achieve this, we use an ensemble model – this means combining predictions from multiple individual models to produce a more reliable, robust result. To build the model, we integrate:
- Species occurrence data from EurOBIS
- Environmental predictors from CMEMS, EMODnet and Bio-ORACLE:
- Sea surface temperature
- Salinity
- Net primary production
- Bathymetry
To capture both short-term dynamics and long-term trends, two modelling approaches are implemented:
- Monthly-scale model
- Purpose: To capture seasonal patterns in habitat suitability.
- Method: Matching of species data with environmental conditions from the same month.
- Output: Maps of predicted habitat suitability per month (available as NetCDF files).
- Decadal-scale model
- Purpose: To understand long-term trends and predict future habitat suitability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate change scenarios.
- Method: Matching of species occurrence data to decadal averages of environmental predictors. Predictions based on Bio-ORACLE climate projections.
- Output: Maps of predicted habitat suitability per decade (from 2020 until 2100), available as NetCDF files.
The monthly-scale model can be used to identify areas that are likely to be important for these species at different times of the year, while the decadal-scale model provides insight about how these areas might shift under various future climate scenarios.
In both, the outputs represent a relative probability of species occurrence – based on environmental and previously detected occurrence data. It is important to note that this does not reflect the actual presence or absence of the species and also depends on the quality and abundance of the data going into the model. A species may still occur in areas where the model predicts low probability and may be absent from areas with high predicted suitability. The model serves as a tool to guide decision-making, not as a definitive map of species distributions.
The outputs of these models aim to inform marine spatial planning, policy, and offshore industry activities, providing science-based data to minimise the anthropogenic impacts on sensitive marine species.
These models are described in more detail in the project deliverable D5.1 “Scientific document determining biodiversity trends, underlying drivers and essential observations for predictive modelling”, where the output figures can also be found.
Accessing the model and outputs
The habitat suitability model is publicly available through the LifeWatch-ERIC Virtual Research Environment and can be accessed via the Workflow Studio: https://my.lifewatch.eu/workflow/create-workflow-from-template/marcobolo-habitat-suitability-model.
More information on this workflow can be found in the metadata catalogue: Metadata Catalogue.